My experience shows one real application could easily require many, many libs. Yes there are exceptions, don't bother listing them because the rest of the universal code base relies on libraries.Libraries are both a weakness and strength for lisps. Yes there are libs that do EVERYTHING out there. Each one has a different style and approach. There are no standard methodologies across the libraries. This makes it difficult. Everytime a developer brings in another library they have to figure out how to use it. Versus interfacing with libraries in python, ruby or even Java / C#... everything is much more uniform.
There is a bigger opportunity with small to medium size experimental projects. I think a great example is: http://www.pageonetimes.com/ which is based on PG's news code.
personal-finance-management system
In the past I've implemented front and back-end financial software. I think it's a huge undertaking and best implemented with as many tested and true libraries as you can find. It's absolutely possible in arc, but why use arc when it's not the best choice (for now atleast). Meanwhile there are a number of other areas where the code will not be nearly as library dependent.
a dedicated arc IDE
I think an IDE is a great idea. In my opinion, the way to do it is to use existing IDEs. DrScheme (already works...), Eclipse, SLIME all come to mind. Now before everyone goes nutty thinking we need our own IDE - yeah eventually. But who is going to put in hundreds of hours of time into implementing a new IDE when you could plug into three existing IDEs in a fraction of the time.
I think at this point a completely new IDE would need to incrementally improve on the best IDEs that are out there. VIM, Emacs, Eclipse, XCode, VisualStudio, etc (ya, a decent IDE seems to be one of the few things M$ does right).